#R4: Tariffs, my honest thoughts

It feels like the world’s been on pause since November 5th—ever since the man with the blond fringe got elected.

The whole planet's got its eyes on him. He’s loving the spotlight, swimming in waters where he feels right at home. On paper, it couldn’t look better for the US.

I held back from sharing my thoughts until a few months had passed—mainly to get a clearer read on how the real power players would react.

Let me give you a brief rundown of what’s happened since Trump kicked off his new foreign and economic policy—and how he’s trying to reshape the global order into something far more chaotic.

Here’s a quick timeline of how we got here:

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January: Promises and threats

20 Jan: Trump is sworn in and immediately promises 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting 1 Feb. Also announces the creation of a new agency to collect them: the External Revenue Service.

26 Jan: Threatens Colombia with 25% tariffs after they refuse to accept deported migrants. Colombia pushes back with similar measures—then backtracks.

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February: Action begins

1 Feb: Trump signs orders to impose:

• 10% on all Chinese goods,

• 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods (starting 4 Feb).

3 Feb: A 30-day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada in exchange for migration and anti-drug commitments.

4 Feb: 10% China tariffs go into effect. China hits back with its own tariffs and launches an antitrust probe into Google.

10 Feb: China applies 15% tariffs on US energy and agricultural goods.

12 Feb: Trump announces 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium.

13 Feb: Proposes “reciprocal” tariffs matching what other countries impose on the US—naming Europe, India and Japan.

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March: Escalation

1 Mar: Orders a study into new timber tariffs, citing “national security.”

4 Mar: Tariffs on Mexico and Canada go into effect—except a 10% energy carveout for Canada. China ups its own tariffs.

5–6 Mar: Temporary exemptions for the auto sector in Mexico and Canada. Canada holds off on $87bn in retaliatory tariffs.

10 Mar: China strikes back with 15% tariffs on key US farm goods: soy, beef, chicken.

12 Mar: Global steel and aluminium tariffs begin. EU preps $28bn in countermeasures.

13 Mar: Trump threatens 200% tariffs on European wine and Champagne if the EU taxes American whiskey.

24 Mar: Announces 25% tariffs on countries that buy oil from Venezuela—targeting China in particular.

26 Mar: New 25% tariffs on imported cars from 3 April. Car parts to follow later.

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April: The big hit

2 Apr: Trump activates his “reciprocal tariffs”:

• 10% flat rate globally,

• 34% on China,

• 25% on South Korea,

• 24% on Japan,

• 32% on Taiwan,

• 20% on the EU.
  Canada and Mexico are partly exempt under the USMCA.

3 Apr: Car tariffs begin. Canada hits back with 25% on US vehicles.

4 Apr: China mirrors the 34% tariff and tightens controls on rare earth exports. Sanctions 27 US companies.

5 Apr: 10% minimum tariff takes effect globally.

9 Apr: “Reciprocal” tariffs are officially raised—but later that day, the White House suspends them for 90 days, except for China. For China, Trump hikes the tariff to 125%.

10 Apr: EU freezes its retaliation for 90 days, aligning with the US pause—but warns it’ll go ahead if talks fail.

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My honest take

Let’s start with the basics. In a world with sound money—think gold standard—free trade makes sense.

If someone in China can make what you do, but cheaper, gold flows their way.

Less gold in your country means lower prices. More gold in theirs means higher prices. Balance is restored.

Healthy competition. The more efficient player wins. Everyone levels up.

That’s the theory.

In practice, that world doesn’t exist anymore. There’s no gold. Just paper.